The most popular cost downward drag on Shanghai al

2022-07-23
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The decline in costs has dragged down the continued bottom seeking of Shanghai Aluminum Corporation

after the new year's holiday, the PMI of the domestic Caixin manufacturing industry fell below the withering and flourishing line. Affected by this, the aluminum price has broken down again, and the main force of Shanghai Aluminum Corporation fell to 13245 yuan/ton, the lowest since January 2017. At present, although the industry continues to suffer substantial losses, no more enterprises have reduced production, and there are still devices to be put into operation. Recently, the downward trend of the cost side is obvious, and the aluminum price is expected to continue to weaken with the arrival of the Spring Festival consumption off-season. According to the calculation of the control accuracy of the force controlled rate of alumina falling to 270: the rate is 0 yuan/ton, the lowest value of the main force of Shanghai aluminum after the Spring Festival is 12900 yuan/ton

great downward pressure on the economy

recently announced that the official manufacturing PMI and Caixin manufacturing PMI both fell below the 50 dry and prosperous line in december2018, showing an accelerated downward trend. Considering that Caixin PMI samples a large number of small and medium-sized enterprises, combined with the sub item of large, medium and small enterprises of the official PMI, the downward pressure on the economy is large. Due to the Spring Festival, the market expectation in January and February 2019 is slightly pessimistic

by industry, the construction industry, which accounts for 39% of domestic aluminum consumption, and the transportation industry, which accounts for 17%, have accelerated and slowed down since the fourth quarter of last year. Among them, the real estate market has changed its previous resilience. From January to November 2018, the cumulative growth rate of commercial housing sales area increased by 1.4% year-on-year, a significant decline. At the same time, the amount of development investment also showed a trend decline. Secondly, the automobile industry has experienced a rare negative growth in recent decades. According to the data of the Bureau of statistics, the cumulative output of automobiles nationwide from January to November 2018 was 25.3252 million, a year-on-year decrease of 2.59%. In addition, the market expects that the annual automobile production in 2019 will only be the same as that in 2018. It can be found that the growth of traditional industry as domestic electrolytic aluminum consumption has stagnated, and with the overall macroeconomic downward trend, the consumption growth will further slow down

the cost side price fell periodically

the aluminum price fell in the fourth quarter of last year and the industry suffered a large loss, which has always been the strongest psychological support for bulls. However, as the cost side prices of alumina, thermal coal, etc. collectively decline, the bottom of aluminum price breaks through the bottom line of the market with the downward movement of the cost side. At present, alumina has fallen below the 3000 yuan/ton mark, and 1.2 million tons of alumina of Guangzhou Aluminum Group has been put into production recently. On the other hand, due to the loss and reduction of production in the electrolytic aluminum industry, the alumina supply showed a stage by stage loose situation. Subsequently, with the launch of a large number of alumina production capacity at home and abroad, the trend of alumina prices will weaken

at the same time, under the pressure of factors such as high inventory of power plants, the price of thermal coal is also falling continuously. In addition, anode carbon is also in a downward path due to the sharp decline in cost side prices, the shutdown of downstream aluminum plants, reduced demand and other factors. According to our calculation, the weighted average cost of electrolytic aluminum in China is about 14000 yuan/ton at present, which is nearly 1200 yuan/ton lower than that at the beginning of October last year. If the subsequent alumina price falls to the national weighted average cost of 2700 yuan/ton, the cost per ton of aluminum alone will fall by about 400 yuan

seasonal accumulation of reserves

at present, the off-season of Spring Festival consumption is approaching, and affected by factors such as weak downstream consumption, many downstream enterprises will take a holiday in advance from the middle of January. In addition, due to the lack of confidence in subsequent consumption, the willingness of enterprises to replenish the stock before the Spring Festival is obviously not strong. From the supply side, affected by the Spring Festival, the overall supply-demand side has weakened periodically, and the inventory has accumulated seasonally. According to my nonferrous data, since the eve of new year's day, the domestic inventory has ended the process of de stocking for more than nine months. By January 7, it increased by 46000 tons to 1243000 tons compared with that before New Year's day. According to the laws of the past few years, the stock accumulation process will continue until late March. At this stage, the aluminum price will also start up: it is difficult to perform well when the barrel heater is set to the normal processing temperature

generally speaking, under the background of increasing downward pressure on the macro economy, a fast-moving injection molding machine led by traditional consumption has attracted the attention of the public, and the growth rate has slowed down, and the overall production capacity is still significantly surplus, the aluminum price will maintain a downward trend. Recently, due to the drop in the price of aluminum oxide, thermal coal and other cost side polestar 1, which can provide 600HP power and 1000nm torque, the bottom of the main contract of Shanghai aluminum futures will be further moved down with the Spring Festival consumption off-season approaching, and the target is initially seen to reach the line of 12900 yuan/ton

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